1 Introduction

The official level of average CO₂ emissions from new passenger cars registered in the EU, as measured in the laboratory via the Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP), decreased to 110 g/km in 2022, which is roughly 6 g/km lower than in 2021. For the European Economic Area, the average value in 2022 was 108 g/km.

After the introduction of the 2015 targets, and in the absence of more stringent targets before 2020, average CO₂ emissions increased by 0.7 g/km per year up to 2019. With the introduction of the fleet-average CO₂ target of 95 g/km in 2020, new car emission levels fell at the unprecedented rate of more than 1 g/km per month in 2020/21. However, since 2022, this rate of CO₂ reduction has slowed. According to preliminary data published by the European Environment Agency (EEA), all manufacturing groups nevertheless complied with their respective 2022 CO₂ targets.

New mandatory CO₂ standards for the years 2025 and 2030 were adopted in early 2019 (Mock, 2019) and revised in March 2023 (Dornoff, 2023). Fleet-average emission reduction targets are -15% for passenger cars and vans by 2025, -55% for new passenger cars and -50 % for new vans by 2030, and -100% by 2035 for cars and vans, all relative to a 2021 baseline. Compliance with CO₂ emission targets will be measured using the WLTP test procedure, which became mandatory for new vehicles in September 2018.

For new heavy-duty vehicles, the current CO₂ standards from 2019 set a 15% emissions reduction target by 2025, or 2.5% per year, and a 30% reduction by 2030, relative to a 2019 baseline (European Commission, 2019). A proposal by the European Com-mission from February 2023 would extend and strengthen these CO₂ target levels to -45% in 2030, -65% in 2035 and -90% in 2040. It is expected that revised CO₂ standards for new trucks and buses will be finalized in early-2024.

The long-haul tractor trailer segment makes up 61% of the total truck market in the EU. CO₂ emissions for this segment dropped an average of 1% in 2021 over 2020, falling short of the annual 2.5% reduction target. When looking at manufacturers, MAN and Volvo showed the greatest improvement in CO₂ emissions from 2019 to 2021, becoming two of the lowest emitting manufacturers. The highest emitting manufacturer was Ford, which was the only manufacturer whose CO₂ emissions increased over the previous year (+2.3%). Despite achieving relatively little improvement in 2021, Scania remains the lowest emitting manufacturer of long-haul tractor trailers, largely due to their superior air drag performance (Ragon & Rodriguez, 2021) (Fig. 1-2).

Technologies and key technical parameters

Although the vast majority of Europe’s new cars continue to be powered by gasoline or diesel engines, the share of alternative power trains is steadily increasing. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 12% of all new car sales in 2022, while plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) made up about 10% of the market.

BEVs were the most popular in Sweden in 2022, where 35% of new car sales were battery electric, followed by the Netherlands with a BEV share of 24%, up from 20% in 2021. Sweden was also the leading market for PHEVs, where they made up 23% of new sales. The success of electric vehicles in the Netherlands can be partially attributed to the extensive charging infrastructure network in the country, with over 115,000 publicly accessible charging points at the start of 2023, 30% more than Germany despite having only a fifth of the number of passenger cars on the road (Fig. 1-3).

Of the largest brands, Volvo (37%) had the highest market share of PHEVs in 2022, followed by Mercedes-Benz (24%) and BMW (21%). Volvo also led in BEV market share, with 21% of sales being battery electric in 2022, followed by Fiat (18%) and Renault (16%).

In 2022, the average mass of new cars in the EU increased to 1,518 kg, 19% above the 2001 level. The average mass of the Swedish new car fleet was, at 1,788 kg, well above the EU average and above other relatively heavy EU fleets, such as Germany, where the average was 1,631 kg. In contrast, customers in Italy and France opted for significantly lighter cars, with an average weight of 1,387 kg and 1,415 kg, respectively. The average engine power was 109 kW in 2021, which is about 47% more than in 2001.

On-road & other emissions

The Real Driving Emissions (RDE) test procedure was phased-in beginning in 2017 for new vehicle types and is required for all new vehicles as of September 2019. As part of the RDE test, conformity factors were introduced that regulate how much higher vehicle emissions are allowed to be during on-road testing than during laboratory testing. For nitrogen oxides (NO_x), the conformity factor was 2.1 for the initial phase starting in 2017 (Euro 6d-Temp standard) and 1.43 from 2020 onward (Euro 6d standard). As of January 2021, all new vehicle registrations must be Euro 6d compliant. The subsequent Euro 6e standard is in effect since September 2023 for new vehicle types and will apply one year later for all newly registered vehicles. A proposal for the Euro 7 standard, which will likely be the last step before the phase-out of combustion engine vehicles, is expected to be adopted by the European Commission in early-2024.

The light-duty vehicle CO₂ regulation adopted in 2019 requires the European Commission to monitor the on-road fuel and electric energy consumption of passenger cars and vans to prevent growth in the gap between type-approval and real-world CO₂ emissions. Since 2021, to collect the necessary monitoring data, manufacturers are required to install on-board fuel and energy consumption monitoring devices (OBFCMs) in new vehicles. The Commission was tasked to assess how OBFCM data may be used to ensure that type-approval CO₂ emissions remain representative of real-world CO₂ emissions. By the end of 2026, the Commission will also assess the feasibility of a mechanism that prevents the gap from growing by adjusting each manufacturer’s annual CO₂ emission performance, applying from 2030.